The industrial market faces various challenges due to the current geopolitical environment, marked mainly by the change of federal administration in the United States. The arrival of a new administration could translate into modifications in immigration and trade policies with Mexico, directly impacting the flow of investment and the dynamics of the industrial real estate market.

The return of President Donald Trump to the White House could imply the implementation of tariff policies that would make trade relations between Mexico and the United States more complex. As a result, the real estate market has remained on the lookout for the current situation, experiencing a decrease in industrial demand during the 4Q of 2024.

The review of the Treaty between Mexico, the United States and Canada (T-MEC) is emerging as a key factor for the country's economic situation. In this context, 2025 is presented as a year full of important challenges for the economy and the industrial sector. However, key opportunities remain, such as leveraging nearshoring, which could play a crucial role in market growth.

The national industrial inventory closed the last quarter of 2024 with 104.2 million square meters, reflecting an annual increase of 12%, this being the largest growth that the market has reported in at least the last six years.

At the end of the year, the national industrial market has a vacancy of 3.1 million square meters, which is equivalent to a vacancy rate of 3%, with most markets reporting healthy figures again, although some stand out, such as Saltillo, Puebla or Aguscalientes, where the figure is less than 1%. In contrast, the largest amount of vacant square meters is concentrated in the country's large markets such as Ciudad Juárez, Tijuana, Mexico City and Monterrey.

Industrial leasing activity during Q4 2024 reached 1.2 million square meters, representing a 23% decrease compared to the same period in 2023. The markets with the highest demand were Mexico City, with 284 thousand square meters occupied, followed by Monterrey and Guanajuato, with 271 thousand and 118 thousand square meters, respectively. In the annual comparison and at the national level, industrial demand numbers closed at 6.2 million square meters, exceeding by 7% the figure reported during 2023, thus marking record demand figures and evidencing the potential that the market currently has.

At the regional level, the eight industrial markets in the north of the country concentrated 46% of industrial demand, while the Bajío represented 20% of total leasing at the national level, these regions being the most active in demand. Despite this, the Guadalajara market, the only one belonging to the western region, stands out for the leasing activity it had during the 4Q 2023, which exceeded 100 thousand square meters.

At the end of the fourth quarter of 2024, construction activity in the country closed at 5.6 million square meters under development, remaining within figures similar to those recorded at the end of 2023. The markets with the highest volume of industrial construction in the country were Monterrey, which concentrates 37% of the space under construction, and Mexico City, with 16%.

An indicator that remains on the rise and that projects a promising future for the industrial market is the activity in the start of new industrial properties by the largest developers in the country. During 4Q 2024, the construction of 1.2 million square meters of industrial space began, distributed in more than 60 new projects nationwide. The markets with the highest volume of construction started were Monterrey, with 365 thousand square meters, and Guadalajara, with 243 thousand square meters.

During the last quarter of 2024, new supply totaled 1.5 million square meters, which became part of the existing national industrial inventory. The markets with the highest inventory growth were Guadalajara and Monterrey, with an annual increase of 17% and 16%, respectively.

Industrial property rental prices maintained a marked upward trend, closing 2024 with an average of $6.99 USD/m²/month, representing an annual increase of 13%. Mexico City positioned itself as the market with the highest rents, reaching $9.16 USD/m²/month, followed by Tijuana, with $8.53 USD/m²/month.

The most competitive rental prices nationwide are found in the Bajío region. The Guanajuato industrial market registers the lowest rates in the country, with $4.99 USD/m²/month, followed by San Luis Potosí, with $5.55 USD/m²/month. This is largely attributed to the fact that much of the current supply is properties built prior to the pandemic or are second generation, another factor is that developers have sought to maintain competitive prices to attract a greater number of clients.

The markets with the largest increases in rental prices during the year were Mexico City, with an annual increase of 25%, followed by the industrial markets of Chihuahua and Guadalajara, with increases of 20% and 17%, respectively.

While it is true that the return of President Trump to the United States has generated greater caution among companies, industrial investments continue to show positive performance in Mexico, which is reflected in the dynamism of the market, with new investments in industrial infrastructure and the continued leasing of industrial properties. The decrease in industrial demand this quarter has been a response to changes in the United States administration and uncertainty about the possible implementation of protectionist policies.

The Mexican industrial market faces a challenging environment where political decisions in the United States have the potential to generate changes in the economy and in the behavior of investors, which requires constant adaptation and resilience on the part of the market. However, the industrial real estate sector continues to have the necessary conditions to take advantage of opportunities and continue to expand.