The industrial market of Guadalajara accumulated a gross absorption during the first three quarters of 2022 of 334 thousand square meters, a figure 19% higher than that registered in the same period of 2021.

This boost in demand influences the behavior of vacancy, which has fallen from a record high of 7.1% in February 2021 to the percentage of 0.62% registered at the end of November 2022.

The current vacancy is concentrated in three submarkets such as: El Salto with 17 thousand square meters and Lopez Mateo Sur and Periferico Sur that have 11 and 2 thousand square meters, respectively.

Check here: CDMX developers interested in continuing to build last-mile spaces

When we do a search on the Solili platform as of November 2022, 24 available spaces are located with surfaces ranging from 1.1 to 27.6 thousand square meters, this last option corresponds to a speculative project located on the El Salto submarket.

If the search is refined on those available spaces that correspond to constructions in progress, of the total 230,000 square meters that are underway, 60% would be vacant.

Speculative projects dominate the supply of vacant spaces with a wide range of sizes, with the exception of the 10 to 20 thousand square meter category, where there are no available options under construction.

Under this scenario, rental prices close in November 2022 at $5.0 dollars per monthly square meter, which reflects an average annual increase of 8.5%. As a reference, this annual increase is similar to what we observed in Saltillo and doubles the average rental price increase in Mexico City.

When reviewing the average rental prices per submarket, the maximum is located in Periférico Sur with $5.7 dollars per square meter per month and the minimum of $4.6 in Lopez Mateos Sur. While the submarket where 66% of the leases are concentrated during the 3Q of 2022 with $5.2 dollars per monthly square meter.

Of interest: Industrial demand in Querétaro is the one that has grown the most in the entire Bajío region

Let us take into account that the El Salto submarket concentrates a large part of the new industrial projects in execution and due to the quality of the modern buildings and facilities offered there, they will take advantage via rental price in the operations that are registered during 2023.

When analyzing the history of net demand for the last two years, we could expect a very active first quarter in 2023 that, in the face of a critical scenario of available spaces, would directly affect rental price increases above the percentages that we saw registered in 2022.