The notable increase that gross industrial demand has registered in the eleven months of 2022 already exceeds 6.6 million square meters nationwide, amounting to 15% higher than that registered in the equivalent months of 2021, has been one of the triggers for that vacancy at the national level has registered contractions in all Mexican industrial markets so far in 2022.

In absolute terms, the markets of Monterrey, Ciudad de México, Ciudad Juárez and Querétaro are where the largest adjustments were generated, decreasing the vacant spaces in these respective markets by 435, 362, 144 and 126 thousand square meters, with comparative figures from the end of 3Q 2022 compared to 3Q 2021.

Of interest: Industrial demand for the bajiol in 2022 is 55% higher than that reported in 2021

However, in percentage terms, the markets of Monterrey, Chihuahua and Querétaro managed to decrease their respective vacancies by more than 3 annual percentage points, closing the third quarter of the year with 1.5%, 1.9% and 2.6%.

When we analyze the most recent results of Solili, with figures at the end of November 2022, we find that just over half of the industrial markets in the country maintain vacancy rates below 2%, with the minimum values being less than 0.6% in Ciudad Juárez, Tecate and Guadalajara.

It is also true that we are beginning to see some markets that between the close of 3Q 2022 and the month of November, where barely two months have passed, began a turning point in their vacancy curve and it is mainly motivated by the number of constructions that vacancies entered these markets and which in turn correspond to areas where industrial constructions have reached their highest levels.

For example, Mexicali managed to recover more than one percentage point in just two months, between September and November 2022, while Tijuana closed in November 2022 with a vacancy of 0.78% after registering 0.71% in September 2022, the same trend as It is observed in Ciudad Juárez.

And it is these three markets Tijuana, Ciudad Juárez and Mexicali that managed in the two months of October and November 2022 to complete new industrial works to their inventories, for 82, 71 and 68 thousand square meters, respectively. This bet on speculative construction is the most efficient way to reverse the contractions of the vacancy.

Check here: The supply of speculative industrial buildings in the country is still insufficient

Another situation occurs in those markets whose vacancy has continued to decline throughout 2022, as is the case of the two main industrial markets in the country, Monterrey and Mexico City. Monterrey in February 2021 reached its maximum percentage of industrial vacancy in the last 4 years, registering 6.1% and from there it has been declining, month by month, until closing November 2022 with 1.4%.

We observe the same behavior in the capital of the country that in January 2021 stood at 5.6% and this indicator has also been adjusted downward until November 2022 when it closed at 1.83%.

The outlook for next year will be an interesting exercise in success for those developers who are looking at or negotiating industrial land with infrastructure that allows them to consistently meet industrial demand. We will already be going through an inflation scenario that is more forceful than expected. that we go through in 2022.