Vacancy and demand for offices is shaping up to balance in the country in 3Q 2021
Solili | September 30, 2021 |

The gross demand for corporate spaces had shown a significant contraction between the results of 2020 and 2019, of 46% in Mexico City and 67% in Monterrey, which are the main corporate markets nationwide.

Another indicator that was increasing quarter by quarter during the pandemic was vacancy that was motivated by the resizing of spaces by companies, on the basis that part of the staff would work remotely as a result of the pandemic.

This situation was further complicated by the contraction of the economy where the majority of companies to a greater or lesser degree saw their income decrease.

Net demand remained in negative territory and the gap was increasing throughout 2020, as vacancy far exceeded the demand that had been emerging in the midst of the pandemic.

This trend of negative net claims was observed at the close of 1Q 2021 in Mexico City and Monterrey, where the capital had the largest amount with a negative figure of 170.8 thousand square meters.

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Markets in the interior of the country such as Guadalajara, Tijuana, Querétaro and Mérida, on the contrary, reported positive net demands, although their gross demands did not reach pre-pandemic levels, there were no significant vancancy rates that will mainly affect these markets.

Moving towards the second quarter of 2021, the net demand at the national level, although still in negative numbers, had been closing the gap from 156 thousand square meters in 1Q 2021 to 94 thousand square meters in 2Q 2021.

In the specific case of Mexico City, it went from a negative net demand of 170 thousand square meters in 1Q 2021 to 100 thousand square meters at the end of 2Q 2021.

Just at the end of July, the capital government gives its first statements where it indicates that it will grant administrative facilities for real estate projects in areas such as Tacubaya and Reforma.

Specifically, in Reforma avenue, the Sustainable Building Certification Program (PCES) should be considered, which means that they must use materials and practices that respect the environment in the planning, design, location, construction, operation and demolition of a building. 

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The works should begin within six months after the registration of the format in question, as long as they present the corresponding environmental impact study for the work.

Now, according to the figures monitored by Solili so far in the third quarter of 2021, July and August show a national net absorption gap that is still reducing a little more, going from being negative at 94.2 thousand square meters to also negative numbers but much less than 14.4 thousand square meters nationwide.

Only in Mexico City, the negative net demand for July and August 2021 is almost 34 thousand square meters, when the performance of the month of September that would close the third quarter has yet to be counted. This amount has been a third of the total for the previous quarter, 2Q 2021.

The fact that this difference has been narrowing is due more to a decrease in vacancy  than to a sustained increase in demand.

According to what has been observed, companies have already taken the spaces they needed throughout the year 2000 and so far in 2021 and thus be able to adapt them to the new sanitary requirements required for the safe return to the offices.

In the remainder of 2021, it is expected that this trend towards the balance between gross demand and vacancy will be reached, managing to move towards the scenario of moderate positive net demands in mid-2022, to the extent that the plans for new construction and reallocation of use follow their progress.

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