Two of the most relevant indicators to appreciate the performance of a real estate market are gross demand or absorption and vacancy, and to deepen the opportunities further, they should be analyzed by submarkets, because sometimes the aggregated figures can suggest different realities.
However, under specific circumstances such as the pandemic, there is another extremely important indicator, such as unemployment, which is implicit within the net absorption.
The pandemic left behind an important demand, in a corporate market that only in the capital indicated a vacancy of 14.4% in December 2019 and went on to register 22.47% at the end of October 2021.
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But perhaps the most worrying indicator was unemployment, since with the uncertainty and changes that occurred in the labor model, companies reviewed their space needs in detail from the perspective of keeping what is really necessary to maintain their operations.
Mexico City had had positive net absorptions during the quarters of 2018 and 2019, prior to the pandemic, including in the first 1Q 2020, but then this indicator turns negative, indicating that vacancy exceeds a gross demand that was also declining .
During 3Q 2020 and 1Q 2021 we saw the largest negative figures of 181 and 170 thousand square meters. But as of the second quarter of 2021, although this indicator maintained negative figures, it had been closing its gap until reaching in 3Q 201 the negative amount of 19.6 thousand square meters.
In other words, the trend of a gradual recovery in demand and a gradual adjustment of unemployment is observed in a period where the adjustments to the space required for employees must have already been made.
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Likewise, on the supply side, new inventories have been added to the capital where several enter unemployed in a greater amount if compared to the pre-pandemic periods
The other edge that completes the panorama are the constructions that have slowed down significantly, with almost 25% less in progress today than we saw in advance in the month prior to the pandemic.
Even in the midst of the complexity that the capital corporate market continues to face, statistics indicate that unemployment will continue with its downward adjustment trend throughout 2022.
For its part, the demand will be exposed to a greater number of internal and external factors, among which the reconversions stand out, the government impulse to detonate certain areas in the city and the confidence indicators that the national government shows for the rescue of investments, globally.
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