Industrial vacancy was during 2022 one of the indicators with the greatest movement in most national markets. Given the frenzy of gross demand growth registered by some markets such as Monterrey and Mexico City, with increases that exceed 35% and 27%, vacancy showed strong reductions in all markets nationwide.

Monterrey since February 2021 where it registered an average vacancy of 6.1% has been in sharp decline until November 2022 where it registers 1.3%, thus setting a historical record in this market.

Of interest: The most diverse and competitive Mexican industrial real estate market in 2023

Mexico City follows the same behavior from its maximum vacancy of 5.6% in January 2021, from where a marked decline begins until November 2022, where it closed with 1.8%, also the lowest point since the Solili real estate platform covers this market.

Other markets reflect this same behavior with a marked downward curve where we find Guadalajara, Puebla, Querétaro, Tecate, San Luis Potosí, Guanajuato and Reynosa. 

However, we have observed that in the last months of 2022 the downward trend that some real estate markets brought was interrupted by a turning point where the trend reversed and, little by little, slight upward adjustments began to be generated. The markets of Tijuana, Mexicali, Ciudad Juárez, Chihuahua y Aguascalientes and belong to this group.

When we analyze what happens there, we can see that at the end of the third quarter of the year, markets such as Tijuana, Ciudad Juárez and Mexicali are advancing with a percentage of speculative projects of 91%, 72% and 42%, with respect to the total number of industrial buildings that were build, respectively.

By building a greater proportion of speculative projects that become available, the pressure exerted by demand decreases and the cycle of vacancy reduction can be reversed, as evidenced mainly in the markets of Tijuana and Ciudad Juárez.

Check here: Speculative industrial construction is reactivated in Tijuana due to almost zero vacancy rates

Other markets where the construction of custom-made projects predominates, as is the case of Saltillo and Monterrey with 84% and 72% of the total number of buildings, a large part of what is built is already committed or is about expansions that are not going through. be available as the fall of the vacancy progresses.

By 2023, it is important that developers measure the impact of continuing with the speculative constructions that their markets demand, which would allow a balanced industrial market in the vast majority of national markets.

The importance of maintaining a healthy vacancy, which could revolve around 3% and 5%, is relevant when it comes to maintaining a balanced market where rental prices do not experience shocks that, although they benefit the developer at a certain moment, create distortions for both parties involved.