2022 left a consistent downward adjustment pattern in the vacancy of all Mexican industrial markets, the result in the vast majority of cases of the presence of an offer that failed to keep up with growing demand.

At the national level, gross demand registered an annual increase of 11.6% compared to 2021, exceeding 7.4 million square meters. The main industrial markets by amount, such as Monterrey and México City, registered percentage growth of 35% and 22%, although they correspond to the largest increases in areas. The shoal is not far behind and both Querétaro and Guanajuato manage to exceed the amounts demanded in 2021 by 86% and 74%.

Consult here: Guanajuato was positioned in 2022 as the fourth national market in industrial demand

If we compare quarter by quarter of what was progressing in construction during 2022, the period of least activity was 1Q 2022 with 4.7 million square meters and the highest activity was recorded at the end of 3Q 2022 where 5.3 million industrial buildings were continuing their course .

This difference between what is built and what is demanded would see its direct consequence in vacancy. Tijuana, Guadalajara, Ciudad Juárez and Tecate closed the year with vacancies between 0.5% and 0.8%, which we could classify as the most critical nationwide.

For their part, Monterrey and Mexico City, which are the largest markets nationwide, closed the year with a vacancy of 1.1% and 2.1%, respectively.

At the same time, 2022 also left a learning experience in several markets that managed to begin a turning point in the decline in their vacancy, such as Tijuana, Mexico City and Querétaro, and in all of them a significant share of speculative demand coincided. that exceeds 70% of the total registered.

Of interest: Querétaro emerges as one of the most attractive industrial markets in the country

On the other hand, industrial markets such as Saltillo, Reynosa and Tecate, where the demand for custom-made projects prevails by more than 60%, showed a continuous decrease in their vacancy, ending 4Q 2022 with 2.5%, 1.1% and 0.6%, respectively.

The fact that speculative constructions begin to take center stage in a market is associated not only with the increase in demand that the developer anticipates will be maintained over time, but must also be accompanied by future growth in rental prices.

This combination of elements will be present in 2023 in several Mexican industrial markets, even in the presence of an inflationary environment.

For this reason, the activation of speculative demand is a key factor to return to healthy levels of vacancy that will allow a better balance towards the medium term.