As global growth expectations improved, the World Bank also raised its growth forecast for Mexico's GDP to 5 percent in 2021, 1.3 percentage points higher than expected in January, mainly supported by the recovery in the United States.

“Mexico's economy is expected to expand 5 percent in 2021, as the manufacturing industry and services sector are expected to benefit from an increase in demand for exports linked to strong growth in the United States that receives four-fifths of Mexico's exports, ”he points out in the World Economic Outlook for June 2021.

After the positive collateral effect that the Mexican economy will have this year due to the demand from its commercial partner, the United States, the prospects for 2022 and 2023 are less optimistic, the World Bank anticipates a slower growth rate with rates of 3 and 2 percent, respectively.

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"Growth is expected to soften to 3 percent in 2022 as the fiscal impulse in the United States fades, but domestic demand will be supported by increasing coverage in COVID-19 vaccination," acknowledges the agency.

The World Bank's forecast aligns with that of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), which improved its estimate for Mexico's economy to 5 percent from 4.5 percent in 2021. Both are lower than the 6.5 percent predicted by the Ministry of Finance and Public Credit.

The growth of Mexico estimated for this 2021 of 5. percent, is aligned with the forecasts for Latin America of 5.2 percent, 1.4 percentage points better than those indicated in the report of last January and towards the next two years, it moderates to 2.9 and 2.5 percent, respectively.

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“Regional gross domestic product (GDP) growth is forecast to be 5.2 percent in 2021, assuming moderate progress in vaccine distribution in most countries, fewer restrictions on circulation, positive side effects. derived from advanced economies and an increase in the prices of basic products ”, explains the document.

It will take a long time for much of the region to fully recover and return to pre-pandemic production levels, the World Bank warns, predicting that in 2022 per capita GDP in the region will be 1.5 percent lower compared to your level in 2019.

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