The increase in the prices of raw materials on an international scale generates new risks for general inflation in Mexico, not only because gasoline and natural gas may be affected by recent events, but also because of the increase in the international prices of corn and wheat that present volatility.

Ricardo Aguilar Abe, chief economist at INVEX Grupo Financiero, in his note "Consumer inflation (February 2022)", points out that the National Consumer Price Index (INPC) registered a variation of 0.83% at the monthly rate in February, figure higher than its estimate (0.78% in its monthly comparison) and by the market consensus (0.78% monthly) and the annual rate was 7.28%.

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Likewise, core inflation was 0.76% monthly (0.74% INVEX estimate, 0.73% market consensus), in this case, the prices of merchandise once again represented the main factor of pressure on the core CPI, especially the part of food .

Service prices recorded the highest increase since December.

In this way, the consensus of analysts anticipates an annual inflation of 4.88% at the end of 2022 according to one of the main market surveys, while its estimate, which since the beginning of the year stood at 4.80%, was adjusted to 4.93 %.

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Based on the foregoing, the risks remain biased to the upside, so Banco de México (Banxico) may continue with increases of 50 basis points in the reference interest rate during the following months.

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Original note