At the close of the first quarter of 2025, the economic outlook has been marked by growing uncertainty, largely driven by the implementation of new tariff policies promoted by U.S. President Donald Trump. These actions have created a tense climate in bilateral trade relations, directly affecting various industries, the export of goods, and foreign investment.

The imposition of tariffs would lead to a decrease in the flow of investments between the two markets, raising concerns among entrepreneurs, investors, and workers. Additionally, financial market volatility has contributed to an alert economic landscape, prompting the Mexican government to seek new trade diversification strategies and strengthen alliances with other regions around the world. Likewise, the office real estate sector has not been immune to these repercussions, as reflected in the main market indicators.

By the end of Q1 2025, the national office inventory in Mexico reached a total of 17.6 million square meters, representing a modest annual growth of only 2%, reflecting a slowdown in market expansion and increased investor caution. During Q1 2025, the corporate inventory reported an increase of 69,000 square meters, driven mainly by the Mexico City market with 76% of the new supply, followed by Mérida with 18%.

At the close of the first quarter of the year, the office market in Mexico recorded an available supply of over 3 million square meters for immediate lease, equivalent to a national vacancy rate of 17.1%, representing an annual decrease of half a percentage point. The markets with the highest vacancy rates are Puebla, leading the list at 25%, followed by Mexico City at 19%, and León, Guanajuato at 15%.

Office leasing activity registered gross demand of 178,000 square meters, showing a 10% decrease compared to the first quarter of 2024. The nation's capital remains the market with the highest concentration of investments, accounting for 68% of office occupancy nationwide.

Most office markets in the country experienced a slowdown in demand during Q1 2025. Querétaro and Guadalajara were the most affected, with declines of 39% and 32%, respectively, compared to the same period last year. Mexico City also reflected this negative trend, with a 15% decrease in corporate space occupancy. However, Monterrey stood out as an exception, reporting a 63% increase in office leasing activity.

As of the end of Q1 2025, office construction activity in Mexico remains moderate, with a total of 1.2 million square meters under development nationwide. This volume is mainly concentrated in the country's three primary markets: Mexico City leads with 56% of total construction, followed by Monterrey with 17% and Guadalajara with 9%.

The start of new office construction projects saw slow activity during the first quarter of 2025, with just 2,600 square meters recorded nationwide. During this period, only the Guadalajara and Mexico City markets reported the start of new buildings. The rest of the country's corporate markets did not report any new construction starts, suggesting a more conservative approach to launching new projects.

On the other hand, the average national office rental price at the close of Q1 2025 was $20.22 USD/m²/month, maintaining similar levels to those recorded during the same period in 2024.

The highest rental prices were observed in the Tijuana market, with $21.45 USD/m²/month, followed by Mexico City, which reported an average of $21.10 USD/m²/month. Notably, Mérida rose to third place nationwide during this period, with an average price of $19.32 USD/m²/month, surpassing even well-established markets such as Monterrey and Guadalajara, which reported rental prices of $18.55 USD/m²/month.

The office markets with the highest percentage increases in rental prices compared to Q1 2024 were mainly Mérida, with a 12.8% increase, followed by Querétaro with 5.4%, and Guadalajara with 4.9%.

The current market situation presents a complex outlook, where demand shows signs of slowing and investment decisions are made more cautiously. In response, industry players are opting to modernize their spaces and seek to implement better strategies to retain tenants and attract new investments.

Looking ahead to the rest of 2025, the office real estate sector is expected to maintain a conservative stance, with a moderate pace of new construction and a greater focus on optimizing current spaces. While the market faces challenges, it also opens up new opportunities for those who can anticipate and respond effectively to the changes the sector is undergoing.