The end of 2023 reported a favorable horizon for the development of the industrial market in Mexico. In the midst of a macroeconomic and political environment characterized by uncertainty, investments, highlighting those focused on the industrial real estate sector, have played a fundamental role in serving as a refuge for capital in search of returns above the market average.

Leaving behind the impact of the pandemic and the consequent fluctuations in interest rates and inflation, factors that have significantly influenced both consumption and investment decisions.

During the course of the year, both the United States Federal Reserve and the Bank of Mexico adopted measures to contain the advance of inflation. In the case of Mexico, a monetary policy stance was observed aimed at reducing this indicator from its maximum point, achieving a significant decrease until reaching 4.46% at the end of the second half of December.

Amid a 6.6% annual increase in industrial inventory, the closing vacancy rate remains at similar levels to those reported in 2022, closing at 1.97% nationally. Throughout the 12 months of this period, some markets, driven by an increase in speculative developments, managed to temporarily reverse declines in this indicator, although this trend continued for a few months.

The cities of Mexico, San Luis Potosí, Aguascalientes and Saltillo stood out by experiencing the greatest reductions in the number of vacant spaces, presenting percentage decreases of 0.7%, 2%, 0.6% and 1.3%, respectively.

Mexicali, Tecate and Guanajuato continue to be the markets with the highest vacancy rates nationwide, exceeding 4%, two other significant markets in the north, Ciudad Juárez and Reynosa, have expanded their available spaces with percentages of 3.9% and 2.5%, respectively. The slack achieved in the vacancy rate in some of these markets represents a considerable advantage that will allow them to satisfy the initial demands of 2024 more efficiently.

As anticipated in the quarterly reports issued by the Solili real estate platform, gross demand continued with a slower growth rate in the main national markets that accumulate 5.8 million square meters, a figure that represents a contraction of 21% with total demand. of 2022.

At the end of the fourth quarter of 2023, Monterrey, Querétaro and Mexico City are positioned as the three leaders nationwide in gross demand, registering figures of 402 thousand, 200 thousand and 192 thousand square meters, respectively. They are followed by Saltillo with 180 thousand square meters, along with two other notable markets in Bajío, Guanajuato and San Luis Potosí, which exceed 123 thousand square meters each in this period.

The intense pressures to acquire industrial spaces in Mexico with the aim of expanding operations or establishing themselves for the first time in the country were mainly concentrated in northern markets and in cities bordering the United States. Offering the greatest advantages in terms of proximity, connectivity and access to qualified labor and a network of suppliers present in the clusters of the region.

Companies dedicated to the manufacturing, logistics, electronics, automotive, metalworking, aluminum and furniture sectors are the main applicants for surfaces throughout 2023. In this period, buildings that exceed 20 thousand square meters represent approximately a third of the total accumulated demand.

Without a doubt, the indicator that highlights the solid performance of 2023 is industrial construction, which at the national level has experienced an increase of 5.3% compared to the activity recorded at the end of 2022.

However, construction was boosted by the performance of key markets such as Mexico City, Guadalajara, Saltillo and Monterrey, where there is an increase of 36%, 25%, 24% and 20%, respectively, in the area under construction compared to the end of 2022. In contrast, in markets such as Reynosa, Ciudad Juárez and Tijuana, developers adopted a more cautious stance, advancing at a more moderate pace in terms of projects undertaken at the end of the year.

During the period, a significant acceleration is observed in the start of new constructions, marking the most active quarter of 2023 with the start-up of 1.7 million square meters in industrial projects nationwide. Mexico City stands out as the most dynamic market during this period, with the start of construction of 480 thousand square meters, followed by Monterrey and Querétaro, which undertook the construction of 366 thousand and 225 thousand square meters, respectively.

Rental prices are led by Tijuana, exceeding $8.00 dollars per square meter per month. Consequence of the reduction in the industrial vacancy rate, in a context where the main submarkets experience limitations in their growth potential.

Meanwhile, Mexico City and Monterrey maintain average rental prices that close 2023 with $7.30 and $6.30 dollars per square meter per month, respectively. On the other hand, at the opposite extreme, two markets in the Mexican shoal, Guanajuato and San Luis Potosí, stand out for offering the most competitive industrial rental prices, between $4.40 and $5.10 dollars per square meter per month.

This situation preludes a beginning of 2024 in which not only is an exploration of new submarkets in the country's capital, but also in other key markets. Likewise, the transformation of industrial properties that are experiencing functional obsolescence is planned, with the possibility of being reused for more advanced industrial purposes, especially in areas close to demand or in those designated as last mile areas.

Ultimately, 2023 is revealed to be a crucial period in which access to information is strengthened, and benefits materialize for those investor and developer groups that have followed a focused strategy. This perspective has allowed them to effectively expand their national presence, improve the flow of income in their portfolios and optimize the profitability of their real estate options.

In the immediate future, a scenario is envisioned where the Mexican market will continue to consolidate itself as a favorable terrain for investments. The recurring choice of our territory by international companies highlights the intention to enhance their commercial opportunities by taking advantage not only of the strategic location, but also of the infrastructure, the qualified workforce and the conditions conducive to industrial development. 

This context positions Mexico as an attractive destination that not only meets current needs, but is also projected as a key partner in the global growth and expansion strategy.