If something has been present throughout 2023, it is the shortage of available industrial spaces that has led the Mexican market and especially the northern border markets to reach minimum vacancies over the course of the last six years.

The relocation of supplies to Mexican territory has created pressure on available spaces to which various markets reacted with downward adjustments in their vacancies. The markets with the most critical percentage at the national level are Puebla, Aguascalientes and Chihuahua, which register 0.4%, 0.6% and 0.7%, respectively.

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This situation occurs even in the midst of the presence of construction peaks present in the Mexican market, which nationally reaches 5.6 million square meters at the end of November 2023. The case of Monterrey is one of the most emblematic since with Almost 1.7 million square meters under construction maintain a level of 0.9% industrial vacancy.

The lack of energy or water shortage in some of these markets has also contributed to projects not being executed within the previously planned deadlines or not keeping pace with demand, leaving some of the main industrial submarkets with vacancies below half a percentage point.

For their part, Ciudad de México and Guadalajara, as well as Monterrey, maintain 0.9% industrial vacancy, although in the case of the main industrial markets such as Monterrey and the capital of the country this percentage is equivalent to approximately 150 thousand square meters, which is insufficient for demand. that these markets usually have. Considering the availability of 150 thousand square meters, the average quarterly demand for Monterrey and Mexico City stood at 2.3 and 1.8 times the current availability of spaces, respectively.

Other northern markets that have slightly recovered the decreases in their vacancies have been  Ciudad Juárez, Tijuana and Reynosa, which closed November 2023 with percentages of 2.7%, 1.9% and 1.8%, respectively. The opposite is reported by Saltillo, which has continued with a continuous decrease to 1.21%, the lowest point reported in the last four years.

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However, the lowland markets, although they also managed to reduce their vacancy percentages, had much higher initial percentages and managed to reach the end of 2023 with significant amounts of spaces that could be occupied, 279 thousand square meters in the case of Guanajuato and 210 thousand square meters in Querétaro, which respectively represent the highest percentages at the national level with 4.2% and 3%.

Towards 2024, if we continue to see an increasing rate of demand that recovers at a faster rate after the main investment announcements materialize, including the start of construction of the Tesla project, we will be faced with a panorama where vacancies will still enter percentages. tighter, which will impact more pronounced increases in industrial rental prices.