The eight northern Mexican markets that Solili monitors have maintained the proportion of 54% of the national gross demand if we compare the accumulated results of 2023 with respect to 2022. The total figure accumulated in the year with 3 million 78 thousand square meters of warehouses industrial demand in the north of the country reflects a contraction that exceeds 20% with respect to figures for both the total of this northern region and the national total.

Monterrey, Tijuana and Saltillo manage to represent three quarters of the demand accumulated by the northern markets, although Monterrey takes the lead with the amount of one million 373 thousand square meters, which far exceeds the second and third positions occupied by Tijuana and Saltillo, which They accumulate 546 and 397 thousand square meters, respectively.

Of interest: Industrial demand in Tijuana exceeds half a million m² in 2023, 40% above 2022

If a relative comparison is made of the performance of gross demand in 2023 with respect to the previous year, Mexicali and Tijuana are the most favored markets. Mexicali manages to exceed the demand for 2022 by 1.8 times, while Tijuana manages to advance the registration by 40% more than the figure accumulated in 2022.

Regarding the reported vacancy, we see different scenarios in these three markets. If we compare the closing of the fourth quarter of 2023 with 2022, Monterrey maintains a similar vacancy percentage with 1.1%, which is reflected in the 158 thousand meters that would be available to house new tenants. Meanwhile, while Tijuana achieves a significant recovery in the vacancy percentage, which goes from 0.8% to 2.5% in the last year, otherwise we see a decrease in Saltillo from 2.5% at the end of 2022 to reach 1.3% during Q4 2023 .

These scenarios are the result of the activity of developers who slow down or advance investments by assuming an anticipated risk on a future possibility in the activation of demand in the midst of an environment of increasing rental prices.

Check here: Mexicali closes the year as the industrial market with the highest vacancy rate in the country

In the case of Monterrey the price increases by 25%, while in Tijuana and Saltillo there are smaller increases of 15% and 7%, respectively. The average rents in these three markets are $6.31, $8 and $5.13 dollars per square meter per month, which creates a wide range of options for tenants who want to open negotiation possibilities.

Although without a doubt the big winners this year are the Mexican institutional market and the developers who increasingly know their strengths and move forward knowing the cycles not only of the real estate business but the increasingly accurate interpretation of the geopolitical and macroeconomic changes that will continue to provide during 2024.