2022 was a favorable year for the Mexican industrial market. The global reconfiguration of supply chains found a market neighboring the United States where there are multiple trade agreements that allowed industrial activity to flourish. 

Coupled with this, in recent years Mexico has fostered the development of an important portfolio of high-quality real estate products by developers with extensive experience capable of attracting the attention of investors to this segment.

Under this mix of elements, the end of 2022 leaves figures that once again break records in the main real estate indicators. While the national gross demand exceeds that registered in the first 11 months of 2021 by 17%, the vacancy reaches historical lows in all national markets.

Check here: Speculative industrial construction is reactivated in Tijuana due to almost zero vacancy rates

In 2023, growth in gross demand is expected to continue in markets such as Monterrey, Ciudad de México y Reynosa.

If we analyze the vacancy in markets on the northern border such as Monterrey, Reynosa, Tijuana y Ciudad Juárez, they reached percentages of 1.76%, 1.13% in November 2022. 0.78% and 0.54%, respectively. In Mexico City and Guadalajara, vacancy decreases were 2.1 and 1.6 percentage points, consuming a large part of the existence of industrial buildings in these markets.

The outlook towards 2023 predicts even greater vacancy contractions, which will result in an increase in rental prices, such as the ceiling reached by Tijuana in November 2022 of $6.69 dollars per monthly square meter.

Regarding the macroeconomic scenario, 2023 will continue to be marked by the presence of high inflation. Both the Federal Reserve of the United States and the Bank of Mexico softened their increases by 50 points in their year-end directories, after consecutive periods of adjustments of 75 base points in both institutions.

This more moderate rate of increases, although it will not significantly lower inflation, suggests that the recovery scenario will continue towards the fourth quarter, although it is expected that the slack conditions will continue to decrease for next year.

Of interest: Gross absorption growth of the Bajio exceeds the northern markets during 2022

In the immediate future, global risks are not only associated with inflation but also include worsening geopolitical tensions and tighter monetary and financial conditions.

Precisely these conditions make the real estate market refine and strengthen since the most solid groups that manage to interpret tenant trends are the ones that will not only remain, but will increase their participation and positioning in the Mexican market, in the medium and long term.