The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) raised its growth expectation for Mexico and now anticipates that the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of Mexico this year will register a growth of 2.5%. 

This forecast is above the 2.1% estimated by the entity's economists in September and represents a second consecutive increase over their forecasts in three months.

In updating economic expectations, the OECD experts noted in this review the solid growth in activity in the first three quarters of the year, as well as the strengthening of consumption supported by the gradual improvement in the labor market. However, they qualified that inflation has begun to attenuate the spending and consumption capacity of households and companies.

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The new OECD forecast is above the updated forecasts of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) which is at 2.1%; from the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (Cepal) of 1.9% and that of the World Bank, which stands at 1.8% and is in line with the specific forecast of the Mexican government of 2.4%.

By 2023, the entity's experts estimated that the GDP will achieve an advance of 1.6%, which incorporates a slight upward adjustment from the 1.5% estimated in September and is far from the 3% under which the Mexican government developed its federal budget.

Although they identify exports as a factor that will continue to drive economic activity, they warn that its dynamism will be mitigated by the slowdown in the United States and a greater impact of inflation.

In the document, the chief economist of the OECD, Álvaro Santos Pereira, noted that the central scenario of the entity is not a global recession but they do anticipate a significant economic slowdown that will occur in an environment of inflation.

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In fact, they stated that "there is a risk that price formation mechanisms will be affected in a general way." The suggestion then is to “continue with an aggressive monetary policy that allows inflation expectations to be anchored.

Economists suggest strengthening the independence of competition and productivity authorities and regulators as well as improving their financing, this to encourage economic growth.

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