Tijuana has been one of the most dynamic industrial markets on the border, both due to sustained growth in demand and the depletion of available spaces that have brought vacancy to less than half a percentage point.

If the balance between supply and demand is not achieved in the midst of such a low vacancy rate, the framework is generated so that rents continue to climb to levels higher than those we have observed, which at the end of August 2022 exceed $6.2 dollars per square meter, maintaining rental price ranges similar to those observed in Ciudad Juárez y Ciudad de México.

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During the first two quarters of the year, the predominance of speculative space occupancy exceeds 80% of the closings carried out in Tijuana and another element that causes prices to increase since the competition for available spaces causes more than one bidder due to the few properties available, which leads the rental price to rise.

The registered transactions range from one thousand to 28 thousand square meters. Close to 70% is concentrated in surfaces between 10 and 28 thousand square meters, although the largest number of operations corresponds to sizes of 5 to 10 thousand square meters.

The lack of land, supplies and energy, together with the strong pressure of industrial demand in Tijuana, limit its growth, which has allowed markets such as Tecate y Rosarito to expand as a result of their proximity to this market. Tijuana's geography will facilitate natural growth to the east and to the south-west in the immediate future, which would be where Tecate and Rosarito are located, respectively.

Pointing out that a perfect storm is taking shape is associated with the fact of combining factors that drive all the indicators in the same direction, which in this case corresponds to the increase in income.

Although nearly 400,000 square meters are under construction in this market, a large number of these industrial properties are rented before their settlement, which generates even more complex conditions to see the price decrease in the medium term.

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Another important factor that impacts the price is inflation, which, as we well know, reached levels of 8.7% at the beginning of August, with projections for higher growth in the remainder of the year. The size of the investment would also come into play here, since the project must guarantee that the preliminary amount of infrastructure and services allows minimizing their incidence in the final product of the ship, thus guaranteeing the profitability of the investment in the midst of an environment of guaranteed demand.

Developers such as Prologis, Meor, Atinsa, Finsa and REI, among others, participate in this dynamic and face the challenge of providing the market with spaces that could reverse or minimize the growth trend in rental prices in the immediate future.