Close to the end of 2023, the gap between industrial supply and demand has continued to increase in the Mexican market, where supply cannot satisfy demand, which although it has been growing, has done so at a slower rate than what we saw recorded throughout the year 2022 in the vast majority of industrial markets in Mexico.

However, markets such as Aguascalientes, Guadalajara, Guanajuato, Mexicali and Tijuana do aim to end 2023 with a demand figure that could exceed that accumulated from the immediate previous year.

Check here: Toluca, Naucalpan and Tlalnepantla submarkets concentrate the highest volume of vacancies in CDMX

The scenario of insufficient supply has favored the increase in rental prices and downward adjustments in vacancy in a large part of the markets monitored by the Solili real estate platform nationwide.

If we analyze the decrease in demand in percentage terms taken as reference figures at the end of November 2023, the Bajío markets such as San Luis Potosí and Aguascalientes report downward adjustments of over 2.1% annually. In the same trend are the largest markets nationwide such as Monterrey and Ciudad de México, which at the end of November 2023 registered close to 0.9% vacancy.

On the contrary, the markets in the north of the country such as Ciudad Juárez, Mexicali, Tijuana, Reynosa and Tecate have been able to achieve the recovery of percentage points of their vacancy if the percentages of November 2023 are compared with those registered in 2022, as a consequence of the sustained pace of construction that has advanced throughout this year.

However, even with the efforts of industrial developers who have taken construction areas to a historical maximum at the national level that exceeds 5.6 million square meters, we have witnessed an upward scenario in industrial rental prices.

Of interest: Current panorama of supply in the industrial markets of Mexico

The increase in rental prices is led by Tecate, which closes November 2023 with $8.48 dollars per square meter monthly, followed by Monterrey and Mexico City where we have seen annual adjustments of more than $1.40 dollars per square meter monthly in the last year, to close with $6.30 and $7.20 dollars per square meter per month, respectively.

These considerations place us before 2024 where there is still room for rental prices to continue advancing, motivated by the fact that speculative development faces greater risks due to inflation, which, although it has been growing at a slower rate, will continue impacting material and labor costs.