Foreign direct investment (FDI) in Mexico could fluctuate between 35,000 and 40,000 million dollars in 2023, driven by nearshoring, which would be key for the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to grow 1%, HSBC Research estimated.

The financial institution has a positive economic outlook for the country for this year, due to macroeconomic soundness and the arrival of some catalysts, such as overcoming peaks in inflation and interest rates at a global and local level, which will lay the foundation for a stronger investment positioning.

Of interest: Solili Industrial Report January 2023: Demand began the dynamic year and registers 505 thousand m²

And it is that the combination of resilience in economic activity, opportunities and implications of nearshoring, the drop in inflation, the end of rate hike cycles and solid external and fiscal accounts will be key factors for Mexico in 2023.

“We have a constructive economic outlook for Mexico in 2023, despite global and local challenges, which is based on: resilient GDP growth of 1.0%, with an upward bias, supported by nearshoring opportunities that could translate into a foreign direct investment (FDI) of 35-40 billion dollars in 2023”.

Last November, the Ministry of Economy reported for the third quarter of the year that preliminary foreign direct investment amounted to 32,147.4 million dollars, an increase of 29.5% compared to the same period in 2021 and the highest since 1999 for a similar period.

Likewise, HSBC exposes that the drop in inflation, which it estimates will remain at a level of 4.5% year-on-year, added to the stabilization of inflation expectations, will create space to reduce the reference rate by 100 basis points in the second semester, in fact expected to close at 9.75% levels.

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“This does not mean that the restrictive stance in the country's monetary policy will be withdrawn, since our monetary policy rate path implies an ex-ante real rate of around 6.0% in 2023, thanks to the space that the fall will open gradually in inflation expectations”, he specifies.

The financial institution also states that orderly external accounts, led by strong and sustainable inflows, combined with contained current account and trade deficits, and a solid short-term fiscal position will also help significantly, despite a small deficit. primary in 2023.

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