The Guadalajara office market could not report oversupply in 2022
Solili | February 03, 2022 |

2021 ended with a recovery in the gross absorption of the office market in the city of Guadalajara, which, as estimated, was 35% higher than the figure for the previous quarter, which is equivalent to 5,000 square meters more. But even with this recovery, the figure was 30% below what was recorded in 4Q 2019 before the peak of the health emergency in the country.

Of the figure that almost reaches 20 thousand square meters, half is concentrated in the Puerta de Hierro corridor, with October being the month of greatest demand. The rental activity prevailed over the sale and in the latter the pre-sale in corporate projects stood out.

Vacancy closed 4Q 2021 with just over 6 thousand square meters, which represents a 40% reduction compared to 3Q 2021, although it is still a higher figure than that registered in pre-pandemic periods.

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The net absorption indicator also stands out, which remained in positive numbers throughout the year except for the second quarter, which closed with a negative figure, but in the fourth period the value was very close to that of 4Q 2020 and even higher than that of 2019 prior to the health emergency.

Construction began on the Zion Tower, on the Vallarta - Americas submarket, this project being one of the mixed-use developments that are advancing in the metropolitan area, which includes corporate spaces and apartments. This building still has 28% of its pre-sale spaces available.

Torre Zafiro completed construction in December 2021, which adds 5.2 thousand square meters to the market inventory, although it only has 24% available for rent. The tower is located in the Puerta de Hierro submarket and in the Andares area, an important commercial point in the city.

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When we analyze the vacancy we see a turning point in July 2020 that was around 14.1% and from there its rise to a maximum of almost 23% reached a year later, in July 2021. From there the slope goes down until the end of December 2021 with 20%.

If the recovery trend of the average rental price continues in this way, closing December 2021 with $19.8 dollars per monthly square meter and the conservative attitude of developers in stopping the start of new corporate projects, Guadalajara would be facing the trend of reaching levels below 15 % vacancy, which would technically imply that the oversupply in that market would no longer be present and would be at pre-pandemic levels.

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