Tijuana ends 2023 with one of the largest increases in accumulated gross demand, reaching 546 thousand square meters of industrial warehouses, which represents 40% above those registered during 2022.

The entities in the north of the country exceeded 54% of industrial demand at the national level, turning out to be the most important markets in the search for spaces and in the construction of new projects. In favor are the distance considerations with other cities in the United States, which would allow more optimal management in delivery times of finished products and receipt of raw materials from suppliers.

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The areas of light manufacturing, electronics, the plastic, food, biotechnology, pharmaceutical and logistics industries created strong pressures on both existing and under construction spaces that led to average rental prices above $8 dollars per meter. monthly square. However, the Pacifico-Nordika submarket exceeds the market average and exceeds $8.5 dollars per square meter per month, while Rosarito maintains the most competitive rental price with $7 dollars per square meter per month.

However, the developers remained firm, continuing to start construction throughout 2023, achieving a historical maximum in August 2023 with 598 thousand square meters of warehouses in development. Of the total under construction, 515 thousand square meters began during 2023, with the first quarter of the year being the most active with the start of 9 industrial projects.

This strong boost in construction and the fact that many of them are developed under the speculative format has allowed industrial vacancy to recover from its lowest level reached in September 2022 with 0.4%, until the end of Q4 2023 where it reported 1.9%. .

Of interest: Santa Catarina, Ciénega de Flores and Escobedo focused industrial demand in 2023

The challenges facing the industrial real estate panorama towards 2024, which include the expansion of interest rates at maximum levels and high construction costs, will undoubtedly create new conditions that will put the pace of construction on new projects, so it could be tilt the balance in Tijuana towards projects with the custom-made or BTS format, in the hope of being able to diversify the risk in the construction phase.

The low vacancy that this market has faced in the past could continue to occur if new construction does not maintain a sustained pace in 2023, so we could be in double-digit figures in rental prices by mid-2024, mainly in the most requested submarkets to expand or relocate production processes.