The industrial market of the country's capital has continued its progress during 2022 and maintains the second position at the national level in terms of gross demand, only below Monterrey.

If we analyze the behavior of the indicator of industrial vacancy in Mexico City, we observe that the highest slope of annual growth occurred in January 2020 and January 2021, registering an increase of 2 percentage points. From there, the trend reverses and the downward adjustment begins, registering 2.5% at the end of August 2022.

If we measure the contraction of the last year between August 2021 and August 2022, the decrease registers a downward adjustment of more than two percentage points, which would be represented in just over 430 thousand vacant square meters.

Of interest: The industrial inventory in the country grows by just over 1.2 million m² during the 3Q 2022

However, the percentage vacancy of the capital is not homogeneous. While submarkets such as Atizapán, Ixtapaluca and Zumpango exceed 8% vacancy, others such as Toluca and Tepotzotlán are closer to the average with 3% and 2.4%. However, two other corridors that are part of the CTT registered values below the average, as is the case of Cuautitlán with 1.5% and Tultitlán with 0.8%.

If we focus on last-mile corridors, such as Naucalpan and Tlalnepantla, the vacancy percentages are above average and register 4.4% and 3.6%, respectively.

The decrease in the vacancy gap occurs within a scenario where the speed of growth of gross demand during 2022 has been very similar to what was registered in the same period of 2021, while in Monterrey if a faster growth.

If the vacancy analysis is carried out in absolute terms, 54% is concentrated in Toluca, Cuautitlán and Tepotzotlán, and that is where just over half of the inventory is located.

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For the end of 3Q 2022 and the rest of the year, it is likely that some corridors will still record further downward adjustments, although the entry of new speculative works that are on their way to be incorporated into the city's inventory will have to be included in the analysis.The works currently under construction reach 780 thousand square meters.

Another factor to take into account is the delay that reflects some lease operations that fail to register between July and August and that will be registered at the end of the third quarter of the year, according to data from the last rounds carried out by Solili.

With the industrial leasing activity reported by Mexico City, and the low volumes of construction, derived from the scarcity of land, we estimate that by the beginning of 2023, this market will be reporting vacancy rates as low as the markets of the northern border.