Even with oversupply, office markets will continue to grow in 2022
Solili | December 28, 2021 |

The uneven recovery of the various real estate investment segments has significantly affected the global corporate market; in the Mexican case, the excess supply that already existed was further increased by the great changes in labor patterns that the pandemic left behind.

Companies and workers reviewed their needs and requirements under the new mobility guidelines and where hybrid work has opened a new way of operating in the corporate world.

Many companies can apply remote management in part of some non-core processes such as administrative, legal or maintenance issues, which initially led them to reduce or adjust their need for space.

On the corporate occupant side, the uncertainty is still there and cost rationalization is the most immediate response to the unstable climate that still hangs over companies.

On the owner's side, the rental market continues to show signs of weakness, although in what we have monitored the last two quarters of 2021, demand has been reactivating, albeit slowly, and vacancies have already been more decelerated, if compared to what was registered at the beginning of the year.

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Mexico City, for example, once it exceeded 22% of vacancies in June 2021, it has remained close to that level and as of November 2021 it registered 22.46% similar percentage to that reflected in the last three months.

Although net absorption is still in negative territory, it has been decreasing, a sign that vacancy is reaching levels lower than those at the beginning of the pandemic.

The spaces also have fewer areas for exclusive use but although less staff could be present simultaneously in the office, more space per square meter per person has been allocated to keep the suggested distances and in turn the areas for multiple uses have increased.

These movements have meant that the downward adjustment in demand has not necessarily been as pronounced as what had been anticipated at the beginning of 2020 and, little by little, demand is slowly recovering.

Cases such as Monterrey and Guadalajara have reflected isolated 2-month periods, in the last three years, of negative net demands, but in general they have shown lower decreases than in the capital.

Construction has continued to advance in these entities, although with few new project starts where isolated cases have begun in corridors that exhibit lower vacancy levels compared to the entity's average.

Some emerging markets where leasing levels have declined have managed to register sales closings on a smaller scale but have again mobilized demand in recent months.

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Corporate markets such as Tijuana have managed to stay within one of the lowest office vacancies nationwide along with León and Mérida, which register 10.84%, 8% and 11.9%, respectively.

These emerging markets have maintained a certain balance although they have seen their rental prices adjust downward above 10% with the exception of Tijuana where the downward adjustment since the beginning of the year has been only 2.3%.

For this reason, the situation that is expected for the corporate market in 2022 will continue to pass through the formulas for changes of use where we will see multiple offers in mixed-use projects.

The offices in coexistence with commercial and residential uses will be those that will maintain a demand that tends to a progressive recovery although still far from the momentum brought by the sector prior to the pandemic.

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